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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still