Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
